Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.