Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
