From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”