Daily Killings in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The typical number of daily murders per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent administrative figures. However, security specialists have advised that homicide data might not signal enhanced national safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This information was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded during these past months is extremely important,” the President stated, explaining that in November the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security experts urged caution that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could obscure days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the country to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.